SITREP — Israeli Airstrikes on Iran

Aria
23 hours ago
4 min read

“Operation Rising Lion”: Israel Launches Sweeping Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Program

13 June 2025 • 01:30 UTC (06:00 IRDT)

1. What Happened?

In the early-morning hours of Friday, Israel executed its largest ever long-range air operation, hitting what it calls the “heart” of Iran’s nuclear and missile enterprise.

Codename & scale – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed the campaign is dubbed Operation Rising Lion (Hebrew: Am KeLavi), declaring it “will last as many days as it takes” to erase the threat of an Iranian bomb. (reuters.com)
Targets – Israeli officials say the opening wave struck dozens of sites, including Iran’s main enrichment hub at Natanz, missile-production halls at Khojir east of Tehran, and command apartments used by senior IRGC officers in the capital. Explosions and secondary fires were filmed in several Tehran districts. (reuters.com, theguardian.com)
Iranian reaction – State media acknowledged “multiple explosions,” put air-defence batteries on full alert, and closed the national airspace, suspending all flights at Imam Khomeini International Airport. (theguardian.com)
U.S. position – Secretary of State Marco Rubio stressed Washington had no role in the attack, warning Tehran not to strike American forces. (reuters.com)

2. Timeline of the Opening Hours

Time (IRDT)	Event	Details & Significance
03:15	First social-media videos from NE Tehran	Repeated bright flashes, followed by tracer-fire; likely Iranian SAM launches.
03:35	Blasts near Natanz reported by Reuters sources	If confirmed, this may be the first direct hit on Iran’s deep-underground enrichment halls since 2021. (reuters.com)
03:45	IDF publishes Hebrew-language communique	Says “dozens of Air-Force jets” completed Phase I and warns of more waves. (theguardian.com)
04:10	Netanyahu’s televised address	Names Rising Lion and vows to continue “until the danger of a nuclear Holocaust is removed.”
04:25	Iran halts all civilian flights	NOTAM issued; Iraq later closes its own airspace. (theguardian.com)
04:40	Israel’s Home Front Command alert	Orders every citizen to stay within 90 seconds of a protected room, avoid crowds, and follow push alerts. (theguardian.com)
05:30	Global markets open in Asia	Brent +5.6 % to $73.27; WTI +6 % to $72.13; S&P 500 futures –1 %. (reuters.com)

3. What the Key Players Said

Israel – Netanyahu: “We struck the heart of Iran’s enrichment and weaponisation programs… Israel refuses to be the next nuclear Holocaust.”
Iran – IRGC commander Hossein Salami vowed a “forceful and unprecedented” response and convened the Supreme National Security Council. (english.alarabiya.net)
United States – Rubio: “Tonight’s action was unilateral. Our only priority is safeguarding American personnel; Iran must not target U.S. interests.” (reuters.com)
International Atomic Energy Agency – No immediate comment, but yesterday the Board of Governors formally found Iran in non-compliance for obstructing inspections, a decision Israeli officials say triggered the strike planning. (reuters.com)

4. Military Assessment

Israeli method of attack

Defence sources tell Reuters the IAF combined F-35I Adir stealth jets with low-observable glide bombs and air-launched cruise missiles to bypass Iran’s ageing S-300/S-200 belt. (reuters.com)
Satellite tasking (Planet & Sentinel-2) will reveal crater patterns after 07:30 UTC; analysts expect entries at Natanz’s above-ground support facilities rather than the 80 m-deep halls.

Iran’s response (0–24 h)

Direct ballistic- or cruise-missile salvo toward Israeli population centres.
Proxy fire – Hezbollah rockets, Houthi drones, Iraqi militia attacks on U.S. bases.
Cyber – Disruptive intrusions against Israeli power and water utilities.
Strait of Hormuz – Threat to commercial shipping, pushing oil risk premium higher.

5. Civil & Economic Impact

Sector	Immediate Effect	Outlook
Air Travel	Iran & Iraq airspace closed; major carriers rerouting Gulf flights.	Possible knock-on delays to Asia-Europe routes until risk assessed.
Energy	Brent +5.6 %, WTI +6 %. Analysts warn a closure of Hormuz could threaten 20 mb/d of supply. (reuters.com)	Premium persists unless Iran retaliates against oil infrastructure.
Equities	S&P 500 futures –1 %; gold +0.8 %.	Risk-off mood could deepen if rockets begin flying.
Civilians (Israel)	Nationwide “proximity to shelter” order; schools likely closed 13–14 June.	Restrictions ease only after rocket threat judged lower.
Civilians (Iran)	Urban blackout drills reported in Tehran suburbs; rumours of senior IRGC casualties circulate with no proof.	Expect tighter information controls, possible Internet throttling.

6. Why Now?

IAEA censure – On 12 June the nuclear watchdog for the first time in 20 years declared Iran in breach of core safeguards, lending Israel diplomatic cover. (reuters.com)
Intelligence window – Israeli defence minister Israel Katz claims Iran has enough 60 % enriched uranium for ≈15 bombs and had begun final weaponisation steps.
Regional calculus – With U.S.-Iran back-channel talks stalled and Washington distracted by domestic protests, Jerusalem judged the moment “ripe” for unilateral action.

7. What Happens Next?

Escalation window – The next 24–48 hours are pivotal. IDF expects an Iranian reply; its Arrow, David’s Sling and Iron Dome batteries are on max readiness.
Diplomacy – France and the UK requested an emergency UN Security Council session; Russia signalled it would oppose any resolution “legitimising aggression.”
Watch Points –
- First visible satellite imagery of Natanz/Khojir damage.
- Any ballistic-missile launches from western Iran or Yemen.
- Hezbollah rocket tempo across the Blue Line.

8. Bottom Line

Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion” marks the most significant openly acknowledged strike against Iran’s nuclear programme since the Stuxnet sabotage 15 years ago. Whether it merely delays, or fundamentally derails, Tehran’s path to a bomb hinges on Iran’s next move. For now, regional capitals are bracing for a dangerous round of reprisals that could redraw the strategic map of the Middle East.