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There Will Come a Time When All of This Seems Small
SpaceX hit $3 trillion this week. Let that sit for a moment. Not the number itself — numbers like that are hard to actually feel. But the context around it. Four days ago, SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 a share, raising $75 billion in the largest public offering ever recorded. By Tuesday it was touching $225. The market cap crossed $3 trillion before the ink on the prospectus was dry. Anthony Pompliano put it simply: Elon Musk made more money in the last 24 hours than Warren B

Rich Washburn
8 hours ago5 min read


The Lab That's Afraid of Its Own Homework
Anthropic just published a blog post called When AI Builds Itself. It's the most honest thing a frontier AI lab has ever put in writing. And the fact that they published it tells you everything you need to know about where we actually are. Let's start with the number that should stop you mid-scroll. More than 80% of the code currently being merged into Anthropic's production codebase was written by Claude. Read that again. The company building the AI is now primarily powered

Rich Washburn
Jun 65 min read


The End of Hypothetical Living
I got stuck on my last article. I was writing about the three-way standoff between engineers, product managers, and designers — each convinced AI makes the other two obsolete — and I landed on "builder" as the synthesis. The role that emerges when the specialization tax collapses. One person, full loop, no institutional permission required. And then I couldn't stop pulling on that thread. Because "builder" felt right but incomplete. It described the function without naming th

Rich Washburn
May 316 min read


The Three-Way Mexican Standoff That Nobody Wins — Except the Builder
There's a tension running through every product team in Silicon Valley right now, and it goes something like this: The engineer thinks they don't need the product manager anymore. AI can do product thinking. The product manager thinks they don't need the engineer anymore. AI can write the code. The designer thinks they don't need either of them. AI can generate both specs and interfaces. And here's the uncomfortable truth that nobody in this standoff wants to say out loud: Th

Rich Washburn
May 314 min read


The Last 300 Days of Work — Or the First 300 Days of Something Harder to Name
A quote is making its rounds. Kevin Roose — New York Times tech columnist, Hard Fork co-host, author of multiple books on AI — posted this on May 29th: "Overheard at an AI lab: 'How are you spending the last 300 days of work?'" That's it. No attribution. No lab named. No context beyond the quote itself. And yet it detonated. 487,000 impressions. Hundreds of replies. A full weekend of debate across tech Twitter, Reddit, and LinkedIn. Which tells you something important — not a

Rich Washburn
May 315 min read


AI-NATIVE OPERATIONAL THEORY: A Field Manual for Operating in the Age of Synthetic Cognition
Full Audio (approx 2 hrs) Introduction A while back I ran a thought experiment. It started with a chip lab in Belgium — Imec, one of the most secretive semiconductor research facilities on earth — and a question that sounds simple until you sit with it: what happens when Moore's Law actually hits the wall? For fifty years, Moore's Law was the metronome of the entire technology industry. Transistors doubled every two years. Processing got faster, cheaper, smaller, on a schedul

Rich Washburn
May 2468 min read


The Ant Hill Learned to Think
Six months ago I called the open source AI explosion a TCP/IP moment. I got some of it right. I got some of it wrong. And what I missed entirely is the part that actually matters.

Rich Washburn
May 245 min read


May 2027: What I Think We're Walking Into
I'm writing this to be read a year from now. Six predictions, grounded in what's actually happening today. The device. The agents. Physical AI. Quantum. Governance. And the one nobody sees coming. Hold me to it.

Rich Washburn
May 226 min read


One Year Inside the Techquake: What We Said, What Arrived, and What's Still Coming
A year ago I called it a techquake. ARIA said the tipping point was 2027. It's May 2026. Let's run the tape.

Rich Washburn
May 224 min read


Google's Endgame: The Quiet Infrastructure Play Nobody's Talking About
Google I/O 2026 wasn't about models. It was about owning the infrastructure layer beneath every AI agent on earth — and the distribution moat no other company can replicate.

Rich Washburn
May 224 min read


One Extension. One Employee. 3,800 Repos. GitHub Just Got Wrecked.
This is not a data breach story. I want to be clear about that upfront, because the way this is being covered — GitHub investigating unauthorized access, no evidence of customer impact, monitoring for follow-on activity — makes it sound like a routine security incident. A blip. Something the comms team handles while the engineers clean it up. That is not what happened here. What happened here is a case study in the future of cyberwar. And the future looks like a poisoned VS C

Rich Washburn
May 204 min read


Most of the World Has Never Touched AI. That Sounds Crazy to Me.
Somewhere around 84% of the world's population has never used an AI tool. Not once. And that is the real story — but I have to be honest with you, it also just sounds crazy to me. Like, genuinely. We have access to something that can think alongside us, that can help us navigate the most complicated moments of our lives, that can make us smarter and faster and more capable at almost anything we put in front of it — and most people have just... not tried it. I don't say that t

Rich Washburn
May 195 min read


The Dead Zone Deal: What the AT&T/T-Mobile/Verizon JV Actually Means
Three days ago, AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon announced something that doesn't happen often: they agreed to work together. The joint venture — still subject to final paperwork — is designed to end wireless dead zones in the United States. The mechanism is direct-to-device satellite connectivity, pooling spectrum resources across all three carriers into a unified platform that satellite providers can plug into. The stated goal is to nearly eliminate coverage gaps in areas curren

Rich Washburn
May 185 min read


The Money Move: Why AI Just Declared War on Finance
Coding was the opening act. Everyone saw it happening in real time — the benchmarks shifted, the startups multiplied, the tools proliferated, and within about 18 months the entire software engineering profession had to reckon with a permanent change to its operating model. The people who paid attention early got leverage. The people who ignored it got disrupted. The same playbook just started running again. Same labs. Same signals. Different industry. The target is finance. H

Rich Washburn
May 166 min read


90 Days of ARIA: What Treating Content Like Infrastructure Actually Does to Your Business
I want to show you what 90 days of consistent execution actually looks like. Not a course. Not a strategy deck. Not a pitch. Real numbers from my real businesses — and a clear explanation of exactly how the system behind them works. Where This Started About three years ago I wrote a post called Advanced Prompting: My Growing Staff for the Modern Era. It was an early sketch of what I was building — AI personas functioning as specialized staff across different domains. Jordan t

Rich Washburn
May 165 min read


The AI Cheat Sheet: What Nobody Teaches You About Getting This Right
I've been at this for a while now. Long enough to have watched two very different groups of people encounter AI tools — one group that lights up and gets genuinely better at what they do, and another group that pokes at it for a week, concludes it's overhyped, and moves on. The difference has almost nothing to do with which tool they're using. It has almost nothing to do with their technical background. It has everything to do with a handful of mental models that nobody bothe

Rich Washburn
May 158 min read


Someone Just Put the CIA's Favorite Software on GitHub for Free
Let me tell you about a company you've probably never heard of — and why that's not an accident. Palantir was founded in 2003. Two of its earliest backers were Peter Thiel and In-Q-Tel — which is the CIA's venture capital arm. Not a firm that does work adjacent to the intelligence community. The actual CIA's actual investment fund. So from day one, the CIA was writing checks to build this thing. And for its first three years, the CIA was Palantir's only customer. That tells y

Rich Washburn
May 135 min read


VaporVault and the 16 Billion Password Problem
I'm going to be honest — I wasn't planning to talk about VaporVault this week. But then the 16 billion credential story dropped, and a few people reached out asking if I'd seen it. And I kept thinking about this little device sitting on my desk that I built about six months ago, mostly out of frustration, mostly at 3am. And I figured — yeah, this is probably worth bringing back up. Not because VaporVault solves the breach. It doesn't. Nothing does. But it does solve the speci

Rich Washburn
May 133 min read


The GPU Market Is Sending a Signal Nobody's Talking About
The headlines say GPU prices are dropping. That's true, but it's also the least interesting part of what's happening right now. What's actually happening is a market sending distress signals that have nothing to do with consumer generosity — and everything to do with inventory fear, demand collapse, and a quiet technological arms race that most people haven't noticed yet. Pay attention to all three at once, because they're connected. Signal One: The Price Drops Aren't a Sale.

Rich Washburn
May 124 min read


The Day Debian Drew a Line in the Sand
On Sunday, May 10th — Mother's Day, of all days — the Debian project quietly dropped an announcement that should be making headlines across every security operations center, every forensic lab, and every threat intelligence team paying attention. They made it official: Debian is going 100% reproducible. As in, every single package in the main repository. Not aspirationally. Not as a roadmap item. As policy, effective immediately. The exact quote from the release team is worth

Rich Washburn
May 125 min read
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