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The Factory Learned to Borrow
An 8-gigawatt OpenAI compute deployment in Ohio looks like a data-center story. It's actually a story about how AI infrastructure is becoming bankable — and what happens when credit, not capital, becomes the bottleneck.

Rich Washburn
30 minutes ago10 min read


Moore's Law Just Took a Vertical Turn
We spent decades asking how much smaller a transistor could get. IBM just changed the question: how high can we build? IBM's NanoStack technology goes vertical, and the semiconductor story becomes one story.

Rich Washburn
4 hours ago10 min read


Welcome to the Party, Grok
Grok Bot is cool. I like Grok. I use it. In scientific, technical and physics-heavy work, it has a distinctly useful personality and capability profile. But I've now heard several people say some version of: "I'm thinking about moving everything over to Grok because now they have agents." And I think we're confusing a new presentation of the technology with a new technology. So, welcome to the party, Grok. Seriously. But the party was already underway. OpenAI has Codex and it

Rich Washburn
3 days ago3 min read


When Capability Becomes Vernacular
There is a sentence hiding in plain sight that I think matters more than almost anything being written about AI right now. "My OpenClaw saved us from a power outage." Not: "I used OpenClaw to troubleshoot a problem." Not: "I prompted an AI model and it suggested something useful." Not even: "I built an automation." My OpenClaw saved us. That sentence is doing a lot of work. It describes an AI system the way you would describe a competent employee, a mechanic, a neighbor who h

Rich Washburn
4 days ago7 min read


Easy AI Help Goes a Long Way
A LinkedIn post at 1 AM, a market that couldn't see someone's real capability, and an AI system that fixed the signal in one sitting. What happens when the cost of helping somebody collapses to almost nothing.

Rich Washburn
4 days ago8 min read


From Silicon to Minds: So This Is What a Mind Costs
Traders on Polymarket are pricing a path to a $1.75 trillion Anthropic valuation. Maybe the real question isn't how an AI company gets there — it's that we've just discovered what a mind costs to manufacture.

Rich Washburn
4 days ago7 min read


Nuclear's SpaceX Moment
The breakthrough may not be a better reactor. It may be discovering that reactors can be treated like products. Valar's Ward 250 went critical in Utah. Now the question is whether nuclear is entering its SpaceX moment.

Rich Washburn
6 days ago7 min read


Tracking the Stack: A Trail of Receipts
The grid became the constraint. Wall Street built the teams. NVIDIA started financing the mine. Now the world's largest capital providers are building the rails. A receipt check on the AI infrastructure stack.

Rich Washburn
6 days ago8 min read


Leopold Was Right. The Terrain Was Bigger Than the Map.
Aschenbrenner's fund returned 439% and then collapsed under leverage. The thesis wasn't wrong. The vehicle wasn't built for the terrain. Capital is part of the AI stack — and it has its own physics.

Rich Washburn
6 days ago7 min read


Nobody Ever Got Fired for Buying Copilot
Somewhere right now, an employee who spent the weekend using a frontier AI model to write software, analyze research, build an agent, and restructure an entire project is arriving at work Monday morning. He opens his laptop. "Good news," IT says. "We've approved AI." Fantastic. "Microsoft Copilot." Oh. So we're doing AI with the Tonka set. Here's the thing though — and this is where it gets interesting. Microsoft isn't building a bad product. Microsoft is attempting something

Rich Washburn
Aug 105 min read


Berkshire Just Put Another $10 Billion Into Alphabet. That's the Signal.
Berkshire Hathaway's first Alphabet position caught my attention for a reason that had very little to do with Google stock. The second move made the original argument considerably harder to ignore. Berkshire Hathaway just did something it hadn't done in a while. After 14 consecutive quarters as a net seller of equities, Berkshire went back into the market in size. It bought roughly $20 billion more stock than it sold during the second quarter. And sitting right in the middle

Rich Washburn
Aug 96 min read


The Ceremonial Approval Layer
In an interview with The Economist's Zanny Minton Beddoes, Musk said he expects AI to exceed the combined intelligence of humanity in roughly five years, and that looking ten years out, humans probably won't meaningfully be "in control" of something vastly more intelligent than themselves. He used the human/chimpanzee analogy: if the intelligence differential becomes enormous, expecting the less-intelligent species to remain in charge is difficult to justify. And yes, the 10–

Rich Washburn
Aug 83 min read


Breaking Up With Software Is a Genre Now
I saw a TikTok where a woman was basically announcing that she was done with Claude. Not because the model was down. Not because it hallucinated something important. Not because Anthropic changed the pricing or ruined the interface. Claude apparently suggested the wrong car for her. And not just the wrong car. The kind of wrong car that made her question whether Claude had ever understood her at all. That sentence would've sounded completely insane five years ago. Actually,

Rich Washburn
Aug 87 min read


I Owe My GPUs to the Company Store
Nvidia is starting to finance the AI economy that buys Nvidia. That doesn't mean the boom is fake. It does mean somebody outside the circle eventually has to pay. There's an old song called "Sixteen Tons" about coal miners trapped in the economics of the company town. You load sixteen tons. You get another day older. You get deeper in debt. And, famously: you owe your soul to the company store. Well, welcome to AI Economics 101. Except now you owe your GPUs to the company sto

Rich Washburn
Aug 69 min read


The Industrial Education Model Just Started Its Collapse — And It's Faculty-Led
Miami University in Ohio just did something worth paying attention to, and the headline undersells it. Every undergraduate major will integrate artificial intelligence into its curriculum by the 2027-2028 academic year. Not an AI elective. Not a bolt-on tech literacy course. Every major — Accountancy, Anthropology, Art, Chemistry, Speech Pathology, Physics, Statistics, all of it — gets AI competencies built into the discipline itself, taught by the faculty who already teach t

Rich Washburn
Aug 64 min read


SpaceX Isn't a Rocket Company Anymore
Everyone still thinks SpaceX is a rocket company. The first earnings report as a public company just revealed something different. Revenue came in at $7.8 billion, up 92% year-over-year, beating Wall Street's expectations. Losses were smaller than expected too. Normally that's the whole story — a growth company blowing past estimates, stock should pop. Instead the stock fell after hours. Because the number that actually matters isn't the top line. It's the breakdown underneat

Rich Washburn
Aug 53 min read


The Trillion-Dollar Search Query
This is getting ridiculous. Yesterday I wrote about what happens when AI makes the search space of physical reality economically explorable. The basic argument: almost every major engineering bottleneck eventually becomes a materials-science problem, and AI combined with simulation and automated laboratories is starting to let us search for new materials instead of waiting decades for someone to stumble across them. Today I watched a video about the Salton Sea. There may be a

Rich Washburn
Aug 45 min read


The Toxic Lake Worth Trillions?
There's a toxic lake in the California desert that smells like rotten eggs, kills fish by the million, and gives children asthma at triple the national average. For decades, it was the kind of place you'd write off as an environmental catastrophe and move on. Now it might be the most valuable piece of land in America. The Salton Sea sits on top of one of the largest lithium deposits ever found in North America — enough for 375 million EV batteries, worth over half a trillion

Rich Washburn
Aug 45 min read


Alignment
Sam Altman and Elon Musk just spent three weeks in federal court effectively calling each other liars over the ownership, mission, and future of artificial intelligence. Musk wanted Altman removed from OpenAI. He wanted something like $150 billion in damages. He accused Altman of hijacking a nonprofit and converting it into a private fortune machine. Altman testified that Musk had tried to "kill" OpenAI. The jury ruled against Musk on timing — the statute of limitations, not

Rich Washburn
Aug 45 min read


China Cannot Build NVIDIA's Best Chip — So It Is Trying to Make the Chip Matter Less
For years, the semiconductor story was told in nanometers. 14nm, 7nm, 5nm, 3nm. Each shrink meant more transistors per square millimeter, more performance per watt, more compute per dollar. The country that controlled the smallest transistors controlled the future. That story is still true — for the part of the system that does the math. But AI systems are no longer merely chips. They are compute, memory, packaging, networking, power, cooling and software functioning as one m

Rich Washburn
Aug 37 min read
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