The Confirmation Effect
- Rich Washburn
- 22 minutes ago
- 3 min read
So, I just finished watching Jensen Huang sitting next to Elon Musk — both of them nodding in agreement — saying there’s no AI bubble.
And, you know what? That hit exactly the way I thought it would. Because it’s not a revelation; it’s confirmation.
I wrote two days ago that there is no AI bubble — only a delusion bubble — and this, right here, is the proof. Not because Jensen said it, but because he had to say it. The narrative has finally caught up to the math.
This is what happens when the noise clears and the people actually moving capital start quietly acting on what the rest of the market still hasn’t figured out: we’re not in hype territory. We’re in the infrastructure phase.
And that’s where things get interesting.
Because what the public sees — the noise, the models, the demos, the “what’s your favorite chatbot” level of conversation — is the cover story. The real action is happening underneath: capital allocation, GPU contracts, private compute corridors, closed-loop data partnerships, and long-term positions that have nothing to do with hype and everything to do with control.
People think investors are pulling out. They’re not. They’re just moving in silence. The money is visible — but the intent isn’t.
That’s the part most people miss. Buffett doesn’t announce a $4.3 billion Alphabet buy because he suddenly got curious about AI. He does it because it’s a utility now. The rails are being laid, and the people who build empires know how to move before the lights come on.
Meanwhile, the bubble talk is coming from the same crowd that always panics right before their business model expires — the middleware grifters. The consultants, the “AI whisperers,” the professional PowerPoint peddlers who need there to be a “pause,” because any further acceleration exposes their irrelevance.
They’ve been fighting for the illusion of scarcity — selling access, selling “translation,” selling the idea that AI is too dangerous or too mysterious to touch. Because that’s the only way they stay valuable.
And now they’re watching their margins evaporate in real time.
So when you see all this “AI bubble” talk floating around, remember: a lot of it isn’t market skepticism. It’s existential fear. The people shouting “bubble” are really just saying “please slow down so I can catch up.”
But the people who actually move the world aren’t slowing down.
Jensen isn’t talking about hype. He’s describing gravity — the kind that pulls entire industries into a new orbit. When he sits next to Elon and says this isn’t a bubble, he’s not hyping GPUs; he’s explaining momentum. He’s talking about what happens when exponential becomes operational.
You can tell who gets it by how they’re behaving. Builders are quiet.
Operators are busy. The investor class is rebalancing in the dark. The only ones making noise are the ones trying to stay relevant by manufacturing panic.
There’s a pattern here. Every time technology shifts from novelty to necessity, the same thing happens: the incumbents call it a bubble, the builders call it Tuesday, and the market quietly recalibrates around the ones who didn’t wait for permission.
We’ve entered the confirmation phase — the point where the narrative finally lines up with what the data already showed. The fear stories are burning out. The infrastructure stories are taking over.
And what Jensen said today — with Elon nodding next to him — just made that official.
There is no AI bubble. There never was. There’s just a group of people still trying to sell tickets to one.